CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.95 – 391.2

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±11.7

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 52.65Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 70.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -1Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.6 ±10.5

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -13.92Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 386.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 18.46Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 115, 6962, 8404

/ 100 compat

Projected

122 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 115, 6962, 8404

Auto

24.9 22%

Teleop

49.1 44%

Endgame

38.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6822, 254, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6822, 254, 4990

Auto

75.1 19%

Teleop

219.8 57%

Endgame

93.3 24%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122pts

Blue projected score391.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -269.2
Score range: 90–423
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 178.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376Season APEX562.6

24.9Auto75.1

49.1Teleop219.8

38.4Endgame93.3

28Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	18
teleop	25	233
endgame	4	141
foul	20	50
total	91	442

Result

Final score

91 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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