CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.17 – 155.47

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.7 ±11.7

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 102.32Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 28.13Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 133.72Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.1 ±10.5

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 15.42Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 46.58Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 93.47Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 668, 10372, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 10372, 581

Auto

38.7 15%

Teleop

133.5 53%

Endgame

80.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5499, 5419, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5499, 5419, 6238

Auto

24.8 16%

Teleop

88.9 58%

Endgame

39.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score264.2pts

Blue projected score155.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.7
Score range: 123–296
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.7Season APEX481.1

38.7Auto24.8

133.5Teleop88.9

80.1Endgame39.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	13
teleop	153	44
endgame	86	25
foul	0	5
total	291	87

Result

Final score

291 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree