CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.79 – 377.85

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.6 ±12.1

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -5.33Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 23.13Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 20.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680.2 ±9.9

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 204.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 153.25Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 19.65Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2367, 2854, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2367, 2854, 2643

Auto

5.6 15%

Teleop

45.6 100%

Endgame

-14.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9470, 972, 1854

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9470, 972, 1854

Auto

64.0 17%

Teleop

210.4 56%

Endgame

100.9 27%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.8pts

Blue projected score377.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -339.1
Score range: 7–410
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 177.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.6Season APEX680.2

5.6Auto64

45.6Teleop210.4

-14.9Endgame100.9

64Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	73
teleop	51	194
endgame	27	84
foul	0	0
total	95	351

Result

Final score

95 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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