CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.57 – 84.62

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339 ±11.7

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 95.35Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -7.13Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 46.35Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.5 ±11

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 9.44Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 13.56Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 61.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8048, 10644, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8048, 10644, 5419

Auto

17.6 14%

Teleop

73.7 57%

Endgame

37.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5499, 4990, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5499, 4990, 6962

Auto

22.0 27%

Teleop

36.9 46%

Endgame

21.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.6pts

Blue projected score84.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.9
Score range: 53–167
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 179.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339Season APEX350.5

17.6Auto22

73.7Teleop36.9

37.4Endgame21.8

19Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	10
teleop	76	71
endgame	21	62
foul	5	0
total	133	143

Result

Final score

133 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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