CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.7 – 415.58

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 630

Prediction correct · off by 120.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.5 ±11.7

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 103.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 30.79Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 27.82Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 854.9 ±9.3

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 31.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 21.61Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 362.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 10372, 1351

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6238, 10372, 1351

Auto

10.6 7%

Teleop

90.2 60%

Endgame

50.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2813, 1967, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 1967, 254

Auto

91.0 22%

Teleop

248.6 60%

Endgame

74.8 18%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.7pts

Blue projected score415.6pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -253.9
Score range: 131–447
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 819 vs event baseline 174.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.5Season APEX854.9

10.6Auto91

90.2Teleop248.6

50.3Endgame74.8

0Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	121
teleop	93	342
endgame	55	167
foul	5	0
total	189	630

Result

Final score

189 – 630

Prediction correct · off by 120.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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