CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

253.06 – 338.44

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 84.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.1 ±10.7

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 174.3Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 53.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 24.79Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 944.8 ±8.7

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 109.93Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 128.72Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 99.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 972, 2813, 11247

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 972, 2813, 11247

Auto

42.2 17%

Teleop

140.5 57%

Endgame

63.9 26%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5026, 581, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5026, 581, 6238

Auto

71.8 21%

Teleop

190.7 57%

Endgame

73.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score253.1pts

Blue projected score338.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.4
Score range: 223–368
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.1Season APEX944.8

42.2Auto71.8

140.5Teleop190.7

63.9Endgame73.2

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	54
teleop	28	200
endgame	23	95
foul	5	0
total	94	349

Result

Final score

94 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 84.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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