CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.55 – 92.08

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.5 ±12.2

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 18.68Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 24.9Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -8.03Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236 ±11.6

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 42.28Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 25.51Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 24.29Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1854, 766, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1854, 766, 10644

Auto

9.4 33%

Teleop

19.5 69%

Endgame

-0.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 2643, 1351

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 2643, 1351

Auto

10.3 12%

Teleop

65.7 79%

Endgame

6.7 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.6pts

Blue projected score92.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 6–122
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 168.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.5Season APEX236

9.4Auto10.3

19.5Teleop65.7

-0.8Endgame6.7

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	13	13
endgame	13	41
foul	0	20
total	54	99

Result

Final score

54 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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