CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.52 – 147.55

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±11.6

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 29.05Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 95.1Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 11.37Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512.5 ±11.2

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 27.9Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 89.15Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 30.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 668, 1854

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 668, 1854

Auto

20.1 16%

Teleop

62.7 49%

Endgame

45.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7528, 6238, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7528, 6238, 1967

Auto

21.4 16%

Teleop

81.7 60%

Endgame

32.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.5pts

Blue projected score147.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12
Score range: 100–184
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.4Season APEX512.5

20.1Auto21.4

62.7Teleop81.7

45.3Endgame32.9

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	67	106
endgame	35	28
foul	5	0
total	122	144

Result

Final score

122 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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