CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.17 – 195.49

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.1 ±10.5

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 34.68Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 34.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 40.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.6 ±11.7

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 34.4Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 112.9Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 48.19Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6962, 100, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6962, 100, 2813

Auto

36.1 33%

Teleop

53.4 49%

Endgame

19.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2643, 5026, 10372

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2643, 5026, 10372

Auto

44.3 24%

Teleop

116.4 64%

Endgame

21.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.2pts

Blue projected score195.5pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.3
Score range: 80–225
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.1Season APEX442.6

36.1Auto44.3

53.4Teleop116.4

19.7Endgame21.7

35Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	14
teleop	133	114
endgame	34	45
foul	0	0
total	206	173

Result

Final score

206 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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