CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.88 – 109.48

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 24

Prediction missed · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.6 ±11.6

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 0.46Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -12.86Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 51.28Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.2 ±11

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 68.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 5.03Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 36.11Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1700, 2367, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 2367, 5419

Auto

28.4 99%

Teleop

8.5 30%

Endgame

-8.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 115, 6822, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 115, 6822, 6814

Auto

12.2 12%

Teleop

51.5 49%

Endgame

41.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.9pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.6
Score range: 9–139
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 164.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.6Season APEX283.2

28.4Auto12.2

8.5Teleop51.5

-8.2Endgame41.4

44Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	14
teleop	47	4
endgame	7	6
foul	0	0
total	71	24

Result

Final score

71 – 24

Prediction missed · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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