CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.83 – 57.74

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

40 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.7 ±11

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 15.33Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -3.95Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 42.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±12.2

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 13.47Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 20.3Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 23.97Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 6059, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 6059, 1967

Auto

11.7 23%

Teleop

26.7 53%

Endgame

11.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7528, 5499, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7528, 5499, 7607

Auto

12.4 22%

Teleop

21.1 38%

Endgame

22.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.8pts

Blue projected score57.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.9
Score range: 24–88
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 60 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.7Season APEX261.3

11.7Auto12.4

26.7Teleop21.1

11.8Endgame22.2

91Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	9
teleop	18	6
endgame	4	5
foul	5	0
total	40	20

Result

Final score

40 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 25.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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