CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.79 – 87.07

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 111.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.9 ±11

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 108.28Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 17.28Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 34.23Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.5 ±11.1

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 24.75Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX -16.57Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 78.89Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 668, 6418, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 6418, 1671

Auto

21.7 16%

Teleop

58.4 42%

Endgame

58.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2854, 1854, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2854, 1854, 1868

Auto

7.9 8%

Teleop

59.9 63%

Endgame

27.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.8pts

Blue projected score87.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.7
Score range: 57–190
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 166.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.9Season APEX483.5

21.7Auto7.9

58.4Teleop59.9

58.3Endgame27.4

26Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	29
teleop	157	158
endgame	62	30
foul	5	5
total	248	222

Result

Final score

248 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 111.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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