CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

344.5 – 56.09

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

629 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 143.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 850.8 ±9.9

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 286.93Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX -10.88Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 68.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.8 ±12.8

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 17.63Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 26.96Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 11.5Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 254, 100, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 254, 100, 5026

Auto

82.3 24%

Teleop

187.5 56%

Endgame

67.3 20%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11247, 4990, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11247, 4990, 10644

Auto

5.1 12%

Teleop

12.3 29%

Endgame

25.2 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score344.5pts

Blue projected score56.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 288.4
Score range: 27–374
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 682 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

850.8Season APEX178.8

82.3Auto5.1

187.5Teleop12.3

67.3Endgame25.2

62Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	20
teleop	369	23
endgame	123	10
foul	0	0
total	629	53

Result

Final score

629 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 143.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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