CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.9 – 107.42

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301 ±11.6

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 17.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 9.39Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 33.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±11.7

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 10.63Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 100.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -3.43Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6962, 6822, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6962, 6822, 2643

Auto

24.6 44%

Teleop

32.1 57%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8404, 6238, 2367

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8404, 6238, 2367

Auto

21.4 22%

Teleop

59.0 59%

Endgame

19.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.9pts

Blue projected score107.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.5
Score range: 32–136
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 162.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301Season APEX370.8

24.6Auto21.4

32.1Teleop59

-0.3Endgame19

82Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	106	33
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	136	46

Result

Final score

136 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 68.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.