CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.67 – 111.63

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.9 ±11.7

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 106.26Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 23.97Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 29.44Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.7 ±11

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 22.86Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 17.77Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 71Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1868, 1700, 7528

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1868, 1700, 7528

Auto

26.2 17%

Teleop

95.1 63%

Endgame

29.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2854, 766, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2854, 766, 5419

Auto

25.7 26%

Teleop

50.4 51%

Endgame

22.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.7pts

Blue projected score111.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48
Score range: 82–190
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 164.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.9Season APEX320.7

26.2Auto25.7

95.1Teleop50.4

29.3Endgame22.4

21Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	19
teleop	34	65
endgame	17	22
foul	0	0
total	80	106

Result

Final score

80 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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