CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.18 – 97.83

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.6 ±11.7

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 51.62Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 36.54Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 93.02Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.5 ±11.7

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 19.39Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX -33.12Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 111.56Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10372, 1671, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10372, 1671, 8048

Auto

16.4 10%

Teleop

99.3 59%

Endgame

53.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10644, 6665, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10644, 6665, 668

Auto

17.4 18%

Teleop

32.5 34%

Endgame

44.6 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.2pts

Blue projected score97.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 68–211
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.6Season APEX334.5

16.4Auto17.4

99.3Teleop32.5

53.5Endgame44.6

40Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	95	17
endgame	53	21
foul	20	0
total	183	58

Result

Final score

183 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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