CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.37 – 378.75

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.4 ±11.1

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 74.61Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 74.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX -3.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 838.1 ±9.9

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 29.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 106.41Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 242.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1351, 5026, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 5026, 2854

Auto

29.1 19%

Teleop

100.7 67%

Endgame

21.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2643, 581, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2643, 581, 254

Auto

69.9 19%

Teleop

219.2 58%

Endgame

86.6 23%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.4pts

Blue projected score378.8pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -233.4
Score range: 116–408
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 161.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.4Season APEX838.1

29.1Auto69.9

100.7Teleop219.2

21.1Endgame86.6

0Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	103
teleop	70	266
endgame	25	71
foul	10	15
total	133	455

Result

Final score

133 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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