CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.77 – 114.28

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±10.5

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -4.48Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 27.59Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 35.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.4 ±9.8

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 26.01Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 71.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 16.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6822, 1671, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6822, 1671, 2813

Auto

10.6 21%

Teleop

29.1 56%

Endgame

12.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 766, 3256, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 3256, 4990

Auto

19.4 20%

Teleop

49.0 51%

Endgame

27.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score114.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.5
Score range: 30–143
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.5Season APEX459.4

10.6Auto19.4

29.1Teleop49

12Endgame27.3

124Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	22
teleop	35	100
endgame	33	19
foul	0	0
total	85	141

Result

Final score

85 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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