CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.43 – 249.66

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 140.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350 ±11.7

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 46.63Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 0.15Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 76.65Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 840.5 ±9.3

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 53.44Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 78.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 117.36Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5499, 6665, 10372

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5499, 6665, 10372

Auto

24.2 20%

Teleop

59.3 49%

Endgame

38.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1868, 115, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1868, 115, 9470

Auto

71.1 28%

Teleop

142.1 56%

Endgame

41.0 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.4pts

Blue projected score249.7pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.2
Score range: 95–278
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 157.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350Season APEX840.5

24.2Auto71.1

59.3Teleop142.1

38.5Endgame41

75Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	60
teleop	37	268
endgame	25	146
foul	0	0
total	67	474

Result

Final score

67 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 140.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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