CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.7 – 28.9

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 796.9 ±9.3

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 122.67Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 34.32Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 219.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242 ±12.1

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 28.03Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -1.19Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 2.06Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 5419, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5026, 5419, 9470

Auto

79.0 22%

Teleop

210.0 57%

Endgame

78.1 21%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 100, 2367, 5499

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 100, 2367, 5499

Auto

9.3 32%

Teleop

9.1 31%

Endgame

10.7 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score376.7pts

Blue projected score28.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 347.8
Score range: -7–413
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

796.9Season APEX242

79Auto9.3

210Teleop9.1

78.1Endgame10.7

16Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	9
teleop	205	5
endgame	73	0
foul	0	0
total	370	14

Result

Final score

370 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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