CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.79 – 92.56

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.8 ±12.8

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -17.07Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 38.53Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 13.33Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.2 ±10.5

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -16.31Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 67.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 41.13Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8404, 10372, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8404, 10372, 766

Auto

22.3 91%

Teleop

-9.9 0%

Endgame

12.2 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2367, 5026, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2367, 5026, 115

Auto

32.2 37%

Teleop

40.6 46%

Endgame

14.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.8
Score range: 7–121
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.8Season APEX504.2

22.3Auto32.2

-9.9Teleop40.6

12.2Endgame14.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	58
teleop	25	121
endgame	16	17
foul	30	0
total	87	196

Result

Final score

87 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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