CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.52 – 31.77

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

552 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 141.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.2 ±11.1

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 77.83Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 3.68Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 192.01Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±11.6

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -17.62Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX -6.37Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 55.76Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 668, 5499, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 5499, 254

Auto

39.9 15%

Teleop

176.5 65%

Endgame

56.9 21%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6822, 1854, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6822, 1854, 7607

Auto

4.8 16%

Teleop

14.5 50%

Endgame

9.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score273.5pts

Blue projected score31.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.7
Score range: 6–300
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.2Season APEX202.6

39.9Auto4.8

176.5Teleop14.5

56.9Endgame9.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	7
teleop	286	16
endgame	163	4
foul	10	0
total	552	27

Result

Final score

552 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 141.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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