CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.48 – 175.13

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 155.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±12.7

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 102.7Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 76.54Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 34.24Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.2 ±9.8

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 115.8Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 53.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 5.54Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6059, 2854, 7528

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6059, 2854, 7528

Auto

15.0 7%

Teleop

139.8 70%

Endgame

45.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 4990, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 4990, 6665

Auto

36.3 22%

Teleop

87.3 53%

Endgame

41.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.5pts

Blue projected score175.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.3
Score range: 147–241
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 78 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.4Season APEX340.2

15Auto36.3

139.8Teleop87.3

45.3Endgame41.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	20
teleop	12	25
endgame	1	9
foul	0	10
total	14	64

Result

Final score

14 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 155.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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