CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.08 – 66.46

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 171.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.8 ±11.2

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 118.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX -Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±9.8

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX -22.65Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 19.63Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 69.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 254, 10644, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 254, 10644, 115

Auto

24.7 15%

Teleop

109.7 64%

Endgame

35.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 766, 7607, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 7607, 581

Auto

11.1 17%

Teleop

29.4 45%

Endgame

25.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.1pts

Blue projected score66.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.6
Score range: 40–192
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 575 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.8Season APEX536.9

10.4Auto11.1

85.9Teleop29.4

26.3Endgame25

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	46
teleop	196	104
endgame	88	55
foul	5	10
total	360	215

Result

Final score

360 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 171.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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