Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
251.82 – 150.46
78%22%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
230 – 19
Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 229.8Event APEX -Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 109.86Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 117.77Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330 ±12.2
Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 26.46Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 70.54Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 53.46Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 972, 5419, 6059
86
/ 100 compatProjected
251.8 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 972, 5419, 6059
Auto
42.2 17%
Teleop
159.3 62%
Endgame
53.7 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1854, 10372, 6962
63
/ 100 compatProjected
150.5 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 1854, 10372, 6962
Auto
4.8 3%
Teleop
103.0 69%
Endgame
42.5 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score251.8pts
Blue projected score150.5pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 101.4
- Score range
- 124–278
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
399.1Season APEX330
35Auto4.8
147.2Teleop103
48.9Endgame42.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 41 | 14 |
| teleop | 122 | 5 |
| endgame | 52 | 0 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 230 | 19 |
Result
Final score
230 – 19
Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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