CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.28 – 84.15

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655.2 ±9.9

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX -Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 3.76Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 67.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.9 ±10.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 4.15Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 12.29Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 67.71Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3256, 5499, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3256, 5499, 2813

Auto

17.6 18%

Teleop

59.7 60%

Endgame

22.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 8404, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 8404, 1868

Auto

8.4 10%

Teleop

51.7 64%

Endgame

21.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score84.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.1
Score range: 56–125
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655.2Season APEX525.9

9.8Auto8.4

46.8Teleop51.7

17.1Endgame21.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	30
teleop	69	8
endgame	0	1
foul	0	0
total	96	39

Result

Final score

96 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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