CA District Silicon Valley Event presented by Apple

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

599.87 – 335.16

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

516 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 999.3 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 15.06Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 361.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 223.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.3 ±9.3

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 31.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 146.76Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 156.61Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 254, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

599.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 254, 9470

Auto

128.0 22%

Teleop

329.0 56%

Endgame

131.8 22%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4990, 3256, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 3256, 581

Auto

65.4 20%

Teleop

184.9 57%

Endgame

76.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score599.9pts

Blue projected score335.2pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 264.7
Score range: 300–635
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 811 vs event baseline 195.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

999.3Season APEX694.3

128Auto65.4

329Teleop184.9

131.8Endgame76.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	64
teleop	249	126
endgame	136	80
foul	10	25
total	516	295

Result

Final score

516 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Match videos

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