Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.12 – 107.15

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±11

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 22.86Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 74.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 58.58Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.4 ±11.6

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 25.08Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 24.46Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 57.61Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1280, 3970, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1280, 3970, 114

Auto

29.2 19%

Teleop

90.3 58%

Endgame

35.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8852, 4904, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8852, 4904, 5507

Auto

15.9 16%

Teleop

54.5 54%

Endgame

30.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.1pts

Blue projected score107.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49
Score range: 84–179
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.6Season APEX432.4

29.2Auto15.9

90.3Teleop54.5

35.6Endgame30.2

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	26
teleop	78	42
endgame	32	29
foul	10	0
total	168	97

Result

Final score

168 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Match videos

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