Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.98 – 105.17

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±12.2

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 25.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 26.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 18.13Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.4 ±11.6

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 24.92Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 23.49Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 56.76Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5171, 8840, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 8840, 5700

Auto

22.1 32%

Teleop

27.7 40%

Endgame

20.0 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8852, 4904, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8852, 4904, 5507

Auto

15.8 16%

Teleop

57.8 57%

Endgame

27.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.2
Score range: 48–127
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.7Season APEX432.4

22.1Auto15.8

27.7Teleop57.8

20Endgame27.5

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	56	34
endgame	18	44
foul	5	20
total	98	114

Result

Final score

98 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Match videos

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