Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.27 – 129.4

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±11.6

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 17.96Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 28.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 25.83Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±12.8

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 50.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 7.17Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 71.61Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6506, 649, 2035

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6506, 649, 2035

Auto

17.4 25%

Teleop

25.6 37%

Endgame

26.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2551, 4186, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 4186, 841

Auto

28.1 22%

Teleop

63.1 50%

Endgame

34.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score129.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.1
Score range: 50–151
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.7Season APEX370.4

17.4Auto28.1

25.6Teleop63.1

26Endgame34.3

20Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	30
teleop	51	23
endgame	19	18
foul	0	5
total	100	76

Result

Final score

100 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Match videos

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