Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
157.5 – 104.19
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
182 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11
Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 83.27Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 10.93Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 63.3Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.4 ±11.6
Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 24.4Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 23.34Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 56.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5104, 8016, 7667
70
/ 100 compatProjected
157.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 5104, 8016, 7667
Auto
40.4 26%
Teleop
94.7 62%
Endgame
18.6 12%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8852, 4904, 5507
53
/ 100 compatProjected
104.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 8852, 4904, 5507
Auto
13.9 14%
Teleop
59.8 60%
Endgame
25.4 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.03
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score157.5pts
Blue projected score104.2pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 53.3
- Score range
- 82–180
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
393Season APEX432.4
40.4Auto13.9
94.7Teleop59.8
18.6Endgame25.4
15Consistency21
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 70 | 25 |
| teleop | 64 | 46 |
| endgame | 48 | 35 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 182 | 106 |
Result
Final score
182 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts
Match videos
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