Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.52 – 70.9

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±11

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 10.13Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 73.63Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 71.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±12.2

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 25.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 27.27Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 18.27Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10281, 8033, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 8033, 840

Auto

21.9 15%

Teleop

92.2 61%

Endgame

36.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5171, 8840, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 8840, 5700

Auto

24.8 35%

Teleop

25.2 36%

Endgame

20.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.6
Score range: 49–178
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.6Season APEX234.7

21.9Auto24.8

92.2Teleop25.2

36.4Endgame20.9

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	102	33
endgame	65	22
foul	10	0
total	198	72

Result

Final score

198 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Match videos

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