Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.18 – 118.56

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±11

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 19.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 72.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 55.84Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±12.8

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 68.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 3.94Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 46.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1280, 3970, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1280, 3970, 114

Auto

27.1 18%

Teleop

88.4 60%

Endgame

32.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 841, 4186, 2551

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 841, 4186, 2551

Auto

28.3 25%

Teleop

60.4 53%

Endgame

25.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.2pts

Blue projected score118.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.6
Score range: 97–170
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.6Season APEX370.4

27.1Auto28.3

88.4Teleop60.4

32.2Endgame25.4

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	32
teleop	115	72
endgame	40	74
foul	0	0
total	206	178

Result

Final score

206 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts

Match videos

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