Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
169.85 – 156.17
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
104 – 133
Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11
Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 87.11Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 15.19Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 67.55Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±11
Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 22.92Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 74.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 58.57Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5104, 8016, 7667
75
/ 100 compatProjected
169.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 5104, 8016, 7667
Auto
51.4 31%
Teleop
83.3 51%
Endgame
29.4 18%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1280, 3970, 114
71
/ 100 compatProjected
156.2 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 1280, 3970, 114
Auto
34.4 22%
Teleop
83.9 55%
Endgame
35.1 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score169.9pts
Blue projected score156.2pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 13.7
- Score range
- 133–193
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
393Season APEX390.6
51.4Auto34.4
83.3Teleop83.9
29.4Endgame35.1
31Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 43 |
| teleop | 21 | 63 |
| endgame | 13 | 17 |
| foul | 35 | 10 |
| total | 104 | 133 |
Result
Final score
104 – 133
Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts
Match videos
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