Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.18 – 157.74

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±11

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 10.2Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 74.89Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 72.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±11

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 23.4Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 75.34Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 59Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10281, 8033, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 8033, 840

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

90.3 59%

Endgame

42.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1280, 3970, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1280, 3970, 114

Auto

31.7 20%

Teleop

88.8 57%

Endgame

34.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.6
Score range: 134–181
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 128.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.6Season APEX390.6

19.5Auto31.7

90.3Teleop88.8

42.4Endgame34.8

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	53
teleop	46	49
endgame	31	37
foul	0	5
total	92	144

Result

Final score

92 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Match videos

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