Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.73 – 77.59

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±11

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 8.37Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 72.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 70.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±11.6

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 19.4Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 30.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 27.91Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10281, 8033, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 8033, 840

Auto

21.1 14%

Teleop

86.1 59%

Endgame

38.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6506, 649, 2035

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6506, 649, 2035

Auto

19.3 26%

Teleop

31.0 41%

Endgame

24.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.7pts

Blue projected score77.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.1
Score range: 55–175
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.6Season APEX251.7

21.1Auto19.3

86.1Teleop31

38.9Endgame24.8

28Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	23
teleop	112	43
endgame	66	16
foul	0	0
total	190	82

Result

Final score

190 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Match videos

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