Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.35 – 33.64

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±12.2

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 25.52Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 8.4Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 22.43Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.1 ±13.3

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 9.38Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 1.45Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 22.81Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8840, 10281, 253

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8840, 10281, 253

Auto

22.9 46%

Teleop

21.4 43%

Endgame

6.0 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6918, 4186, 4904

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6918, 4186, 4904

Auto

11.2 40%

Teleop

9.3 33%

Endgame

7.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.4pts

Blue projected score33.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 12–78
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.7Season APEX231.1

22.9Auto11.2

21.4Teleop9.3

6Endgame7.6

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	12
teleop	33	8
endgame	25	25
foul	0	15
total	85	60

Result

Final score

85 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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