Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

350.66 – 33.75

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.4 ±12.4

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 11.87Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 328.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 10.6Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.8 ±13.3

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX -1.19Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 28.09Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 6.85Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4765, 1323, 10615

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4765, 1323, 10615

Auto

69.6 20%

Teleop

211.5 61%

Endgame

68.3 20%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8045, 4159, 11463

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8045, 4159, 11463

Auto

13.8 49%

Teleop

5.3 19%

Endgame

9.3 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score350.7pts

Blue projected score33.8pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 316.9
Score range: 13–372
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.4Season APEX305.8

69.6Auto13.8

211.5Teleop5.3

68.3Endgame9.3

13Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	18
teleop	227	17
endgame	96	12
foul	0	0
total	400	47

Result

Final score

400 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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