Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.97 – 103.47

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.5 ±11.7

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 20.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 43.55Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 51.28Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.8 ±12.2

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 72.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 23.07Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 8.31Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 649, 2551, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 649, 2551, 114

Auto

28.5 24%

Teleop

65.7 56%

Endgame

22.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3970, 1280, 11230

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 1280, 11230

Auto

15.4 15%

Teleop

63.0 61%

Endgame

24.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score103.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 82–136
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.5Season APEX293.8

28.5Auto15.4

65.7Teleop63

22.5Endgame24.8

10Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	13
teleop	74	54
endgame	41	26
foul	5	0
total	154	93

Result

Final score

154 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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