Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.53 – 133.7

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±12.8

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 27.61Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 14.47Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 29.45Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±11

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 80.42Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 49.05Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 4.23Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 253, 6918, 11243

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 253, 6918, 11243

Auto

19.7 30%

Teleop

39.5 60%

Endgame

6.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5104, 5507, 10281

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5104, 5507, 10281

Auto

38.5 29%

Teleop

67.8 51%

Endgame

25.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.5pts

Blue projected score133.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.2
Score range: 51–155
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.4Season APEX431.3

19.7Auto38.5

39.5Teleop67.8

6.4Endgame25.6

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	31
teleop	12	145
endgame	7	11
foul	5	5
total	36	192

Result

Final score

36 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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