Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.17 – 103.24

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.7 ±13.9

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 22.37Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX -7.21Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX -6.99Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.8 ±12.8

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 76.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 10.18Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 16.13Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8840, 8045, 4669

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8840, 8045, 4669

Auto

11.7 100%

Teleop

-10.2 0%

Endgame

6.8 82%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 840, 4973, 4765

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 840, 4973, 4765

Auto

19.5 19%

Teleop

65.0 63%

Endgame

18.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.2pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.1
Score range: -13–124
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.7Season APEX264.8

11.7Auto19.5

-10.2Teleop65

6.8Endgame18.9

94Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	25
teleop	14	19
endgame	12	9
foul	15	0
total	51	53

Result

Final score

51 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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