Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.03 – 94.28

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.7 ±11.6

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 68.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 7.02Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 17.09Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264 ±12.2

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -0.17Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 27.78Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 66.67Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 841, 11463, 8016

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 841, 11463, 8016

Auto

19.5 24%

Teleop

36.7 46%

Endgame

24.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10281, 10221, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 10221, 7667

Auto

21.3 23%

Teleop

49.1 54%

Endgame

20.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.2
Score range: 72–115
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.7Season APEX264

19.5Auto21.3

36.7Teleop49.1

24.4Endgame20.9

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	41
teleop	44	86
endgame	35	6
foul	0	0
total	91	133

Result

Final score

91 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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