Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.09 – 41.17

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±12.8

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 5.12Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 65.71Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 29.26Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.8 ±14.9

8751Miramonte Robotics Team

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 1.92Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 14.54Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 24.71Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11230, 8033, 11243

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11230, 8033, 11243

Auto

12.0 13%

Teleop

64.9 69%

Endgame

17.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8751, 6918, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8751, 6918, 5700

Auto

18.8 46%

Teleop

17.0 41%

Endgame

5.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score41.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.9
Score range: 20–121
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 118.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.1Season APEX203.8

12Auto18.8

64.9Teleop17

17.6Endgame5.3

49Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	51	23
endgame	30	6
foul	15	0
total	109	44

Result

Final score

109 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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