Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.17 – 75.33

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±12.8

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 66.62Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 7.57Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 30.98Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.6 ±12.2

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX -0.35Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 47.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 28.18Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3970, 10615, 4159

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 10615, 4159

Auto

21.6 21%

Teleop

59.4 58%

Endgame

21.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4186, 114, 2035

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4186, 114, 2035

Auto

24.2 33%

Teleop

33.7 46%

Endgame

15.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.2pts

Blue projected score75.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.8
Score range: 54–126
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376Season APEX289.6

21.6Auto24.2

59.4Teleop33.7

21Endgame15.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	31
teleop	67	43
endgame	59	29
foul	0	15
total	146	118

Result

Final score

146 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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