Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.46 – 68.53

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±11.7

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX -5.1Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 27.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 79.23Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.2 ±12.7

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 44.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 8.13Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 15.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8045, 253, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8045, 253, 840

Auto

22.6 23%

Teleop

47.2 49%

Endgame

26.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2551, 11463, 5171

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 11463, 5171

Auto

23.2 35%

Teleop

29.2 44%

Endgame

14.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.5pts

Blue projected score68.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.9
Score range: 47–123
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.2Season APEX278.2

22.6Auto23.2

47.2Teleop29.2

26.5Endgame14.5

80Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	63	31
endgame	6	12
foul	5	0
total	90	61

Result

Final score

90 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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