Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.69 – 69.97

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.5 ±11.2

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX -4.47Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 137.59Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 65.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359 ±11.7

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 18.81Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 11.54Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 39.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9114, 5940, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9114, 5940, 7667

Auto

45.5 23%

Teleop

116.6 59%

Endgame

35.3 18%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10221, 649, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10221, 649, 5507

Auto

6.9 10%

Teleop

35.7 52%

Endgame

26.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.7pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.7
Score range: 49–220
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.5Season APEX359

45.5Auto6.9

116.6Teleop35.7

35.3Endgame26

43Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	27
teleop	113	82
endgame	53	49
foul	0	5
total	228	163

Result

Final score

228 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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