Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

368.61 – 70.24

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.2 ±11.1

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 38.97Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 13.35Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 316.29Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.7 ±12.7

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 11.65Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 30.83Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 27.76Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8852, 8016, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8852, 8016, 1323

Auto

59.8 16%

Teleop

230.9 63%

Endgame

73.8 20%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4973, 4904, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4973, 4904, 6506

Auto

9.0 14%

Teleop

31.1 48%

Endgame

24.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score368.6pts

Blue projected score70.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 298.4
Score range: 49–390
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 116.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.2Season APEX203.7

59.8Auto9

230.9Teleop31.1

73.8Endgame24.1

49Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	24
teleop	250	22
endgame	72	10
foul	15	5
total	406	61

Result

Final score

406 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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