Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.58 – 88.59

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193 ±13.3

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 17.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX -3.82Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 28.1Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.6 ±12.2

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX -4.2Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 75.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 16.98Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5171, 8045, 11243

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 8045, 11243

Auto

18.3 42%

Teleop

19.8 46%

Endgame

5.2 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4186, 840, 1280

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4186, 840, 1280

Auto

16.7 19%

Teleop

51.4 59%

Endgame

18.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.6pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47
Score range: 21–110
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193Season APEX277.6

18.3Auto16.7

19.8Teleop51.4

5.2Endgame18.5

67Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	14	93
endgame	15	30
foul	5	0
total	56	142

Result

Final score

56 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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