Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.2 – 317.2

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 412

Prediction correct · off by 82 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.3 ±12.8

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 57.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 28.26Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 1.27Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529.7 ±12.4

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 306.64Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 6.65Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 3.91Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 114, 10221, 4669

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 114, 10221, 4669

Auto

18.8 22%

Teleop

41.7 50%

Endgame

23.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1323, 6918, 4973

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1323, 6918, 4973

Auto

57.5 18%

Teleop

193.7 61%

Endgame

65.6 21%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score317.2pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -230
Score range: 67–337
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 113.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.3Season APEX529.7

18.8Auto57.5

41.7Teleop193.7

23.5Endgame65.6

77Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	73
teleop	6	259
endgame	11	75
foul	0	5
total	18	412

Result

Final score

18 – 412

Prediction correct · off by 82 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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