Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.49 – 89.91

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.6 ±12.7

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 42.33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 23.03Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 23.13Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.9 ±11

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 24.82Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 24.05Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 41.04Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2551, 2035, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 2035, 6506

Auto

19.5 24%

Teleop

39.9 49%

Endgame

22.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4904, 253, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4904, 253, 5507

Auto

23.5 29%

Teleop

42.6 52%

Endgame

16.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.5pts

Blue projected score89.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.4
Score range: 68–110
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.6Season APEX388.9

19.5Auto23.5

39.9Teleop42.6

22.7Endgame16

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	18
teleop	75	49
endgame	39	50
foul	0	15
total	146	132

Result

Final score

146 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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